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If Republicans can’t win most of these seats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will take
the gavel again for the 112th Congress.
ARKANSAS 2ND DISTRICT (OPEN): overwhelmingly against President Barack PENNSYLVANIA 7TH DISTRICT
Tim Griffin is in a strong position against
for the Senate, ex-prosecutor Pat Meehan
state Sen. Joyce Elliott for the Little Rock-
seems well-positioned to return this Dela-
based seat left vacant by the retirement of
MISSISSIPPI 1ST DISTRICT: Rep. ware County-based seat to its historic
Travis Childers, who captured this north-
ern Mississippi-based seat in a May 2008
COLORADO 4TH DISTRICT: Rep. strong tide in his state and faces state Sen. PENNSYLVANIA 11TH DISTRICT:
Ethics woes have taken their toll on Rep.
in a tough seat. And state Rep. Cory Gard-
Paul Kanjorski, who ran five points behind
ner is a top challenger in this Republican-
Obama in 2008 then failed to win a major-
ployment and home foreclosure rates in the
Las Vegas area are among the issues threat-
FLORIDA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Allen ening to prevent first-term Rep. Dina Titus SOUTH DAKOTA AT LARGE: Rep.
Boyd, who narrowly escaped an August pri-
from winning reelection. Polls show a dead
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is running in a
mary upset, may find the fall election even
bad environment in a tough state for Dem-
more challenging in his Republican-orient-
ocrats. She faces her toughest challenger
NEW MEXICO 2ND DISTRICT: In to date in state Rep. Kristi Noem.
this energy-producing district, Rep. Harry
FLORIDA 8TH DISTRICT: Bomb- Teague’s vote for cap-and-trade legislation
throwing liberal Rep. Alan Grayson’s ap-
may be too much for him to overcome in his
proach doesn’t reflect the competitive
contest against his immediate predecessor,
(OPEN): Following the retirement of Rep.
credible candidate. Republican state Sen.
Diane Black is the all-but-certain winner in
NEW YORK 29TH DISTRICT this 62 percent John McCain district.
FLORIDA 24TH DISTRICT: Fresh- from the resignation of Rep. Eric Massa TENNESSEE 8TH DISTRICT
ble in her GOP-leaning district even before
she flipped from opposing the Democratic
ling of the national GOP after his entry into
retire. He has a serious contest against state
publicans view Rick Berg as one of their best
INDIANA 8TH DISTRICT (OPEN): contenders and for months public polls have tively despite strong headwinds.
shown him with a lead over nine-term Rep.
run for the Senate has made this GOP-ori-
ented, Southern Indiana-based seat—62%
OHIO 1ST DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. GOP incumbent in a strong Democratic
Steve Driehaus benefited from Obama coat-
year to win this Republican-oriented, mil-
tails, particularly among African-Americans,
KANSAS 3RD DISTRICT (OPEN): and Republicans point to grim polling that
suggests ex-Rep. Steve Chabot is on a trajec-
tory to win back his seat in this rematch.
tunity in a GOP-friendly suburban seat.
man Rep. Tom Perriello has hit the hustings
as hard as any member. But with his voting
OHIO 15TH DISTRICT: First-term record—and without Obama driving turn-
LOUISIANA 3RD DISTRICT Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy, who ran more than out this year—it’s an uphill fight in a Repub-
30,000 votes behind the top-of-the-ticket,
lican-leaning district that gave 61% to GOP
barely eked out a win in 2008 against Steve
ning for the Senate, this GOP-oriented dis-
Stivers—who is back for a rematch.
trict should be a tap in for whichever Repub-
lican emerges from the Oct. 2 runoff given
Obama’s low standing in Louisiana.
OHIO 16TH DISTRICT: In this GOP- (OPEN): With the retirement of Rep. Bri-
an Baird, state Rep. Jaime Herrera gives
after casting a potentially costly vote for
cap-and-trade and a high-profile vote for
faces a steep climb in holding onto this
Majority Makers If the GOP is winning most of these races on election night, a Republican majority will be close at
hand. If not, Democrats still have a chance of waking up Nov. 3 with a slim margin in the House.
ALABAMA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. of-the-ticket protection this year.
Larry Kissell’s reelection bid dicey in this
MICHIGAN 1ST DISTRICT OHIO 18TH DISTRICT: Rep. Zack
can-oriented seat challenger Martha Roby
(OPEN): The retirement of Rep. Bart Space’s vote for cap-and-trade will hurt
cellent chance of picking up this competi-
district and his vote against health care
reform has labor promising to sit on its
term Rep. Harry Mitchell faces a rematch
seat has elected four different members of
Congress in the past four election cycles.
polls for both parties show a competitive race
for freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in a seat that
with less than a majority in 2008, faces a
George W. Bush narrowly carried twice.
ARKANSAS 1ST DISTRICT rematch with the former congressman he
Republican polling suggests that first-term
former aide to retiring Rep. Marion Berry,
NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST DIS- Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper is struggling in her
has struggled to unite Democrats after a
TRICT: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter appears Erie-based seat, where her health care re-
form vote has alienated some former allies
early polling numbers but this seat is the
GEORGIA 8TH DISTRICT: In his more Republican of the state’s two con-
GOP-oriented district, Rep. Jim Marshall
gressional districts. Republicans have a
tends to run weaker in midterm elections
In this competitive suburban Philadelphia
district, second-term Rep. Patrick Murphy
NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND DIS- faces a rematch with former Rep. Mike
Fitzpatrick, whom he defeated in 2006 by
congressional districts, this is the more
cakewalk for Illinois Democrats this year,
and it’s especially difficult for a first-term-
in this open seat—left vacant by Rep. Paul
er like Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who has a
Hodes’s Senate run—is former Rep. Char-
tougher GOP foe this time around in Adam
lie Bass, who held the seat for six terms
Democrats’ record—and the failure to
pass a new budget—in a district that voted
ILLINOIS 14TH DISTRICT: This NEW MEXICO 1ST DISTRICT: for John McCain.
While this Albuquerque-based district has
been trending Democratic, for most of its
history it’s been held by a Republican and
won it in a 2008 special election, is up
polls show a close race between freshman
publican district held by any House Demo-
crat—but this will be one of the worst and
he faces well-funded oil-man Bill Flores.
Bill Owens, who captured this upstate seat
district but his vote for health care reform
after Republicans fractured in a November
has hurt him with his former allies in the
2009 special election, is vying for his first
has a clean shot at this seat against state
full term in a district that had been in GOP
Sen. Mike Oliverio, who is still struggling
to unite local Democrats after his victory
INDIANA 9TH DISTRICT: Rep. Bar- NEW YORK 24TH DISTRICT: After May primary.
winning a 2008 reelection squeaker in this
in 2008 in this Republican-oriented, south-
Republican-leaning upstate New York seat,
eastern Indiana-based seat but his votes
Rep. Michael Arcuri is considered one of the
for health care reform and especially cap-
top GOP targets in New York—and faces a
and-trade complicate his reelection pros-
Sean Duffy could make a splash for House
Republicans. But first he must survive a
competitive contest with state Sen. Julie
Lassa for the seat left open by Rep. David
NORTH CAROLINA 8TH DIS- Obey’s retirement.
Boswell, recently moved into the toss-up
category by the Cook Political Report, fac-
If the Democrats in this category start to fall on election night,
oriented district with ease but self-fund-
based district but his cap and trade vote
ing Republican Tom Ganley’s spending is
vantage in this GOP-leaning district but
is already causing him problems in a coal-
care reform vote are muddying her reelec-
Rep. Jason Altmire voted against the health
care reform plan and is running ads stress-
ing his independence from his party. While
he easily dispatched former Rep. Melissa
diligently worked her Tucson-based swing
Hart in a 2008 rematch, this is a Republi-
district. But immigration is a white-hot is-
egation, this is the seat where it would
can-trending district that voted for John
sue this year in the 8th and her support for
the stimulus, cap and trade, health care re-
form and the 2008 financial industry bail-
Senate election; not long after, Rep. Bill
out has left her vulnerable to charges she
is hewing too closely to the party line.
Rep. Chris Carney has crafted an indepen-
dent image but this is a Republican-orient-
been a weak fundraiser but this is the kind
tive-minded seat will go Republican when
of year where it might not matter as much.
Rep. Ike Skelton retires. The only question
ried the district twice, voter registration
is whether it will happen before then, in
is close to dead even between the parties
ing ad time in this GOP-friendly seat.
Obama got 38% in this district in 2008.
closely-contested 2010 special election to
succeed the late Rep. John Murtha, faces
panic and Vietnamese turnout will play a
ginal, suburban South Jersey district that
Republican Gov. Chris Christie carried by
Tran, a state assemblyman, in a district
a wide margin in 2009, faces former Phila-
that voted for George W. Bush in 2004.
delphia Eagles football star Jon Runyan.
but this solidly Republican district won’t
be easy to hold in the current climate.
John Salazar appeared to have locked down
health care reform debate took a toll on
based seat after a big 2008 win but he’s nev-
seat with a history of electing Republicans.
er run in a climate this bad for Democrats.
district, the largest in Texas. Republican
John Hall has struggled to keep pace with
Quico Canseco’s ability to win Hispanic
votes in November will be the key here.
worth and his voting record has been crit-
icized as too liberal for a district with a
Chris Shays in 2008. Spending, taxes and
slight GOP voter registration advantage.
Wall Street regulation are key issues in
ginia’s coal fields, looks to have his tough-
est race since his first reelection in 1984,
Scott Murphy’s 2009 special-election win
term Rep. Ron Klein faces national tea party
friendly districts was a setback for the
favorite Allen West in a competitive South
GOP. He’s worked hard to win a full term
Florida-based seat. The Republican’s pro-
in November but his flip from opposition
lific fundraising is likely to make this one of
to the health care reform plan to support
the most expensive races in the nation.
John Koster in the state’s Aug. 17 all-party
primary. Larsen narrowly defeated Koster
Walt Minnick has done nearly everything he
needs to do to build a firewall. The GOP has
tage and he may need it all this year in a
been slow to rally around his foe but the dis-
district that hasn’t voted Democratic at
Rep. Steve Kagen’s 2006 victory, Republi-
George W. Bush carried the district twice
COLORADO 7TH DISTRICT: Rep. Ed Perlmutter
CONNECTICUT 5TH DISTRICT: Rep. Chris Murphy
GEORGIA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Sanford Bishop
MISSOURI 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Russ Carnahan
NEW YORK 13TH DISTRICT: Rep. Michael McMahon
VIRGINIA 11TH DISTRICT: Rep. Gerald Connolly
WEST VIRGINIA 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Nick Rahall
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