Politico.com

If Republicans can’t win most of these seats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will take the gavel again for the 112th Congress.
ARKANSAS 2ND DISTRICT (OPEN): overwhelmingly against President Barack PENNSYLVANIA 7TH DISTRICT Tim Griffin is in a strong position against for the Senate, ex-prosecutor Pat Meehan state Sen. Joyce Elliott for the Little Rock- seems well-positioned to return this Dela- based seat left vacant by the retirement of MISSISSIPPI 1ST DISTRICT: Rep. ware County-based seat to its historic Travis Childers, who captured this north- ern Mississippi-based seat in a May 2008 COLORADO 4TH DISTRICT: Rep. strong tide in his state and faces state Sen. PENNSYLVANIA 11TH DISTRICT: Ethics woes have taken their toll on Rep. in a tough seat. And state Rep. Cory Gard- Paul Kanjorski, who ran five points behind ner is a top challenger in this Republican- Obama in 2008 then failed to win a major- ployment and home foreclosure rates in the Las Vegas area are among the issues threat- FLORIDA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Allen ening to prevent first-term Rep. Dina Titus SOUTH DAKOTA AT LARGE: Rep. Boyd, who narrowly escaped an August pri- from winning reelection. Polls show a dead Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is running in a mary upset, may find the fall election even bad environment in a tough state for Dem- more challenging in his Republican-orient- ocrats. She faces her toughest challenger NEW MEXICO 2ND DISTRICT: In to date in state Rep. Kristi Noem. this energy-producing district, Rep. Harry FLORIDA 8TH DISTRICT: Bomb- Teague’s vote for cap-and-trade legislation throwing liberal Rep. Alan Grayson’s ap- may be too much for him to overcome in his proach doesn’t reflect the competitive contest against his immediate predecessor, (OPEN): Following the retirement of Rep. credible candidate. Republican state Sen. Diane Black is the all-but-certain winner in NEW YORK 29TH DISTRICT this 62 percent John McCain district.
FLORIDA 24TH DISTRICT: Fresh- from the resignation of Rep. Eric Massa TENNESSEE 8TH DISTRICT ble in her GOP-leaning district even before she flipped from opposing the Democratic ling of the national GOP after his entry into retire. He has a serious contest against state publicans view Rick Berg as one of their best INDIANA 8TH DISTRICT (OPEN): contenders and for months public polls have tively despite strong headwinds.
shown him with a lead over nine-term Rep. run for the Senate has made this GOP-ori- ented, Southern Indiana-based seat—62% OHIO 1ST DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. GOP incumbent in a strong Democratic Steve Driehaus benefited from Obama coat- year to win this Republican-oriented, mil- tails, particularly among African-Americans, KANSAS 3RD DISTRICT (OPEN): and Republicans point to grim polling that suggests ex-Rep. Steve Chabot is on a trajec- tory to win back his seat in this rematch.
tunity in a GOP-friendly suburban seat.
man Rep. Tom Perriello has hit the hustings as hard as any member. But with his voting OHIO 15TH DISTRICT: First-term record—and without Obama driving turn- LOUISIANA 3RD DISTRICT Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy, who ran more than out this year—it’s an uphill fight in a Repub- 30,000 votes behind the top-of-the-ticket, lican-leaning district that gave 61% to GOP barely eked out a win in 2008 against Steve ning for the Senate, this GOP-oriented dis- Stivers—who is back for a rematch.
trict should be a tap in for whichever Repub- lican emerges from the Oct. 2 runoff given Obama’s low standing in Louisiana.
OHIO 16TH DISTRICT: In this GOP- (OPEN): With the retirement of Rep. Bri- an Baird, state Rep. Jaime Herrera gives after casting a potentially costly vote for cap-and-trade and a high-profile vote for faces a steep climb in holding onto this Majority Makers If the GOP is winning most of these races on election night, a Republican majority will be close at hand. If not, Democrats still have a chance of waking up Nov. 3 with a slim margin in the House.
ALABAMA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. of-the-ticket protection this year. Larry Kissell’s reelection bid dicey in this MICHIGAN 1ST DISTRICT OHIO 18TH DISTRICT: Rep. Zack can-oriented seat challenger Martha Roby (OPEN): The retirement of Rep. Bart Space’s vote for cap-and-trade will hurt cellent chance of picking up this competi- district and his vote against health care reform has labor promising to sit on its term Rep. Harry Mitchell faces a rematch seat has elected four different members of Congress in the past four election cycles. polls for both parties show a competitive race for freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in a seat that with less than a majority in 2008, faces a George W. Bush narrowly carried twice.
ARKANSAS 1ST DISTRICT rematch with the former congressman he Republican polling suggests that first-term former aide to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST DIS- Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper is struggling in her has struggled to unite Democrats after a TRICT: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter appears Erie-based seat, where her health care re- form vote has alienated some former allies early polling numbers but this seat is the GEORGIA 8TH DISTRICT: In his more Republican of the state’s two con- GOP-oriented district, Rep. Jim Marshall gressional districts. Republicans have a tends to run weaker in midterm elections In this competitive suburban Philadelphia district, second-term Rep. Patrick Murphy NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND DIS- faces a rematch with former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, whom he defeated in 2006 by congressional districts, this is the more cakewalk for Illinois Democrats this year, and it’s especially difficult for a first-term- in this open seat—left vacant by Rep. Paul er like Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who has a Hodes’s Senate run—is former Rep. Char- tougher GOP foe this time around in Adam lie Bass, who held the seat for six terms Democrats’ record—and the failure to pass a new budget—in a district that voted ILLINOIS 14TH DISTRICT: This NEW MEXICO 1ST DISTRICT: for John McCain. While this Albuquerque-based district has been trending Democratic, for most of its history it’s been held by a Republican and won it in a 2008 special election, is up polls show a close race between freshman publican district held by any House Demo- crat—but this will be one of the worst and he faces well-funded oil-man Bill Flores.
Bill Owens, who captured this upstate seat district but his vote for health care reform after Republicans fractured in a November has hurt him with his former allies in the 2009 special election, is vying for his first has a clean shot at this seat against state full term in a district that had been in GOP Sen. Mike Oliverio, who is still struggling to unite local Democrats after his victory INDIANA 9TH DISTRICT: Rep. Bar- NEW YORK 24TH DISTRICT: After May primary.
winning a 2008 reelection squeaker in this in 2008 in this Republican-oriented, south- Republican-leaning upstate New York seat, eastern Indiana-based seat but his votes Rep. Michael Arcuri is considered one of the for health care reform and especially cap- top GOP targets in New York—and faces a and-trade complicate his reelection pros- Sean Duffy could make a splash for House Republicans. But first he must survive a competitive contest with state Sen. Julie Lassa for the seat left open by Rep. David NORTH CAROLINA 8TH DIS- Obey’s retirement. Boswell, recently moved into the toss-up category by the Cook Political Report, fac- If the Democrats in this category start to fall on election night, oriented district with ease but self-fund- based district but his cap and trade vote ing Republican Tom Ganley’s spending is vantage in this GOP-leaning district but is already causing him problems in a coal- care reform vote are muddying her reelec- Rep. Jason Altmire voted against the health care reform plan and is running ads stress- ing his independence from his party. While he easily dispatched former Rep. Melissa diligently worked her Tucson-based swing Hart in a 2008 rematch, this is a Republi- district. But immigration is a white-hot is- egation, this is the seat where it would can-trending district that voted for John sue this year in the 8th and her support for the stimulus, cap and trade, health care re- form and the 2008 financial industry bail- Senate election; not long after, Rep. Bill out has left her vulnerable to charges she is hewing too closely to the party line.
Rep. Chris Carney has crafted an indepen- dent image but this is a Republican-orient- been a weak fundraiser but this is the kind tive-minded seat will go Republican when of year where it might not matter as much.
Rep. Ike Skelton retires. The only question ried the district twice, voter registration is whether it will happen before then, in is close to dead even between the parties ing ad time in this GOP-friendly seat.
Obama got 38% in this district in 2008.
closely-contested 2010 special election to succeed the late Rep. John Murtha, faces panic and Vietnamese turnout will play a ginal, suburban South Jersey district that Republican Gov. Chris Christie carried by Tran, a state assemblyman, in a district a wide margin in 2009, faces former Phila- that voted for George W. Bush in 2004.
delphia Eagles football star Jon Runyan.
but this solidly Republican district won’t be easy to hold in the current climate.
John Salazar appeared to have locked down health care reform debate took a toll on based seat after a big 2008 win but he’s nev- seat with a history of electing Republicans.
er run in a climate this bad for Democrats.
district, the largest in Texas. Republican John Hall has struggled to keep pace with Quico Canseco’s ability to win Hispanic votes in November will be the key here.
worth and his voting record has been crit- icized as too liberal for a district with a Chris Shays in 2008. Spending, taxes and slight GOP voter registration advantage.
Wall Street regulation are key issues in ginia’s coal fields, looks to have his tough- est race since his first reelection in 1984, Scott Murphy’s 2009 special-election win term Rep. Ron Klein faces national tea party friendly districts was a setback for the favorite Allen West in a competitive South GOP. He’s worked hard to win a full term Florida-based seat. The Republican’s pro- in November but his flip from opposition lific fundraising is likely to make this one of to the health care reform plan to support the most expensive races in the nation.
John Koster in the state’s Aug. 17 all-party primary. Larsen narrowly defeated Koster Walt Minnick has done nearly everything he needs to do to build a firewall. The GOP has tage and he may need it all this year in a been slow to rally around his foe but the dis- district that hasn’t voted Democratic at Rep. Steve Kagen’s 2006 victory, Republi- George W. Bush carried the district twice COLORADO 7TH DISTRICT: Rep. Ed Perlmutter CONNECTICUT 5TH DISTRICT: Rep. Chris Murphy GEORGIA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Sanford Bishop MISSOURI 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Russ Carnahan NEW YORK 13TH DISTRICT: Rep. Michael McMahon VIRGINIA 11TH DISTRICT: Rep. Gerald Connolly WEST VIRGINIA 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Nick Rahall

Source: http://www.politico.com/pdf/PPM176_race_chart.pdf